Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit

2.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score56.0%Range (90% confident): 55.9% – 56.0%Based on 2.4M games

0%56.0%100%

Range (90% confident): 55.9% – 56.0%

Outcome Distribution

54.2%3.5%42.3%

Win

Draw

Loss

4.Bc4

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit

Analyzen=2.4M

Avg Length31 moves

Sharpness97%

Draw Rate3.5%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 56.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.9% and 56.0%), based on 2.4M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +13.1% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~53%)

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Bullet (54%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.9% expected score (33 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (17,188 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (17,551 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (5,394 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (41 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (119 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (47,182 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (75,097 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (21,746 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (175 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.1% expected score (356 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (82,700 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (183,830 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (66,816 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (1,095 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (344 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (105,192 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (314,188 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (130,927 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (4,249 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (356 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (109,966 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (349,652 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (166,706 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (8,127 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.1% expected score (141 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (88,129 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (264,750 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (119,077 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (5,452 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (46 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (57,001 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (90,436 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.0% expected score (33,451 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 67.0% expected score (653 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 63.8% expected score (24 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (27,358 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (13,208 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3,661 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 75.4% expected score (32 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (3,095 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (281 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 71.3% expected score (29 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Scotch Game

52.9%

Variations (5)

Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit

43.5%

Scotch Game: Benima Defense

52.7%

Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack

64.2%

Scotch Game: Braune Variation

49.0%

Scotch Game: Classical Variation

50.6%

Continuations (8)

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation

51.7%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Cochrane-Anderssen Variation

41.8%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense

49.3%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois R��ti Defense

45.1%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Göring Gambit Declined

46.9%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Kingside Variation

55.8%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, London Defense

53.0%

Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation

53.6%

Analyze Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.1%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit perform best?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.6% win rate for white (144K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (60.3%) outperforms Bullet (53.5%) by 6.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.7%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.4%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 144K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 54.5% (90% CI: 54.3%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 335K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 54.4% (90% CI: 54.3%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 555K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.9%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 635K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 478K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 54.4% (90% CI: 54.2%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 182K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.3%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 60.3% (90% CI: 58.2%-62.4%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.7%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.6%) win rate for white (538K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.0%) win rate for white (1.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 55.4% (90% CI: 55.3%-55.6%) win rate for white (548K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.7%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit is statistically favors white with a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.1%-54.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit expected score for White?