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Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense

769K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.0%

45%55%
Floor48.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.

Measured over 769K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 769K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
769K
Best context
55.2% at 1400-1599 Classical
Worst context
47.0% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.9% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.3% at 0-999, 45.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (14,939 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (22,374 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (10,873 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (62 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.5% expected score (132 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (30,747 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (47,366 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (20,099 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (279 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 41.0% expected score (253 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (41,983 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (76,120 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (31,631 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (756 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.4% expected score (201 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (47,223 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (88,441 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (35,341 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (115 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (43,358 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (72,363 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (27,098 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (1,369 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (52 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (33,080 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (45,883 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (14,199 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (558 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 75.7% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (21,924 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (20,011 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (4,132 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (70 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 33.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (10,472 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (2,787 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (691 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (994 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (73 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Lolli Variation
53.8%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit
54.2%
Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation
47.9%
Scotch Game: Haxo Gambit
55.7%
Analyze Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense scores 49.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.9% and 49.1% — from 769K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
769K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate?

Playing the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 769K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense perform best?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.2% (48K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.1% in Blitz (375K games) against 50.5% in Rapid (144K games).

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 48K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 99K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 151K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 173K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 144K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 94K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 49.0%, draws 6.3% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 40.7%, draws 0.9% and loses 58.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 821 Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 245K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 375K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 144K Lichess games.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 50.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Dubois Réti Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.2% of its games and loses 49.3%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.