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Analyzer

Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation

1.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score49.1%Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 51.2%Based on 1.6K games
0%49.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 51.2%
Outcome Distribution
47.3%3.5%49.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nf5
Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation
Analyzen=1.6K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a 49.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 51.2%), based on 1.6K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 41% → 71%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.9% win rate (183 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.0% win rate (283 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.8% win rate (312 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.7% win rate (309 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.3% win rate (276 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.2% win rate (155 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.8% win rate (38 games)
  • 2200-2499: 58.6% win rate (13 games)
  • 2500+: 71.4% win rate (2 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (25%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 49.9% win rate (238 games)
  • Blitz: 46.6% win rate (780 games)
  • Rapid: 48.4% win rate (524 games)
  • Classical: 24.6% win rate (29 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499———
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (97 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (125 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (125 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (44 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (43 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (155 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (100 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 14.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (35 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (159 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (79 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (87 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 64.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 80.8% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit
43.5%
Scotch Game: Benima Defense
52.7%
Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack
64.2%
Scotch Game: Braune Variation
49.0%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Analyze Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation win rate?

The Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.3%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (312 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (48.4%) outperforms Blitz (46.6%) by 1.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation?

The Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a 40.9% (90% CI: 35.0%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 183 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 43.1%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 283 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 48.1%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 312 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a 40.7% (90% CI: 36.2%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 309 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 45.3%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 276 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 41.7%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 155 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 44.6%-55.2%) win rate for white (238 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 43.7%-49.6%) win rate for white (780 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 44.9%-52.0%) win rate for white (524 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

Is the Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Paulsen Variation is slightly favors black with a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.3%-49.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.