123K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 53.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.2% and 53.7%), based on 123K Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~49%)
Best in Classical (54%), worst in UltraBullet (49%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 123K rated games from Lichess.
The Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (30K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.8%) outperforms Rapid (50.3%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 41.6%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 270 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.3%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.3%) win rate for white (72K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.8%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.
In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 50.2%-57.4%) win rate for white (505 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
The Scotch Game: Ghulam-Kassim Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.