Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation

189K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

View As

Tough Sell

White Expected Score44.1%Range (90% confident): 43.9% – 44.3%Based on 189K games

0%44.1%100%

Range (90% confident): 43.9% – 44.3%

Outcome Distribution

41.5%5.1%53.3%

Win

Draw

Loss

5.Nc3

Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation

Analyzen=189K

Avg Length34 moves

Sharpness95%

Draw Rate5.1%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 44.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 43.9% and 44.3%), based on 189K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.4 · Trap factor: -1.0 · n=189K

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 41% → 50%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (47%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (1,438 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (2,712 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (1,272 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (3,611 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (5,634 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (3,206 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (54 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (6,012 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (10,429 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (5,019 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (175 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.8% expected score (19 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (8,982 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (17,574 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (7,200 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (382 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (11,754 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (25,605 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (7,584 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (432 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (12,276 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (22,257 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (5,580 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (226 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (10,062 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (9,406 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (1,863 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (37 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (6,005 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (1,540 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (213 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (630 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (36 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Scotch Game

52.9%

Variations (5)

Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit

43.5%

Scotch Game: Benima Defense

52.7%

Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack

64.2%

Scotch Game: Braune Variation

49.0%

Scotch Game: Classical Variation

50.6%

Analyze Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate?

The Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 41.5% (90% CI: 41.3%-41.7%) win rate for white, based on 189K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.7% win rate for white (669 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (42.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.7%) by -4.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation?

The Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 41.0% (90% CI: 39.9%-42.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 42.4%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 42.4%-43.5%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 41.3% (90% CI: 40.9%-41.8%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 40.4%-41.2%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 40.5% (90% CI: 40.1%-40.9%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 41.3%-42.4%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.0%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 46.6%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 669 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 42.1%-42.7%) win rate for white (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 41.2% (90% CI: 41.0%-41.5%) win rate for white (95K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 40.3%-41.2%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.8%.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation has a 38.2% (90% CI: 36.0%-40.4%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation is slightly favors black with a 41.5% (90% CI: 41.3%-41.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Scotch Game: Steinitz Variation expected score for White?