What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit expected score for White?
Snapshot
At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 56.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.6% and 57.4%), based on 8.6K Lichess games.
Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit
8.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
View As
Play ThisWhite Expected Score56.5%Range (90% confident): 55.6% – 57.4%Based on 8.6K games
0%56.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.6% – 57.4%
Outcome Distribution
54.7%3.6%41.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Bc4
Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit
Analyzen=8.6K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
White Win% by Rating
Declines with rating: 56% → 49%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 56.1% win rate (729 games)
- 1000-1199: 55.1% win rate (1,345 games)
- 1200-1399: 55.0% win rate (1,871 games)
- 1400-1599: 52.8% win rate (1,907 games)
- 1600-1799: 55.6% win rate (1,457 games)
- 1800-1999: 53.9% win rate (768 games)
- 2000-2199: 54.3% win rate (390 games)
- 2200-2499: 59.2% win rate (143 games)
- 2500+: 48.6% win rate (16 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in Classical (63%), worst in UltraBullet (28%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 28.0% win rate (11 games)
- Bullet: 52.5% win rate (1,945 games)
- Blitz: 54.6% win rate (4,255 games)
- Rapid: 56.5% win rate (2,338 games)
- Classical: 63.1% win rate (77 games)
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (155 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (360 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (212 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (277 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (691 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.0% expected score (368 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (324 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (955 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (580 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (331 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (939 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (600 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.0% expected score (32 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (307 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (742 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (387 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (230 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (383 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (148 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (187 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (163 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.3% expected score (40 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (118 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 67.1% expected score (22 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
Related Openings
Parent
Scotch Game52.9%
Analyze Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate?
The Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.8%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.6K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit perform best?
The Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 55.6% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
Rapid (56.5%) outperforms Bullet (52.5%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit?
The Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?
At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 56.1% (90% CI: 53.0%-59.1%) win rate for white, based on 729 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 55.1% (90% CI: 52.8%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 53.1%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.0%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 55.6% (90% CI: 53.5%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 768 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 54.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 390 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 59.2% (90% CI: 52.4%-65.8%) win rate for white, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 52.5% (90% CI: 50.6%-54.3%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.3%-55.8%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
What is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit has a 56.5% (90% CI: 54.8%-58.2%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
Is the Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit a good opening?
The Scotch Game: Napoleon Gambit is statistically favors white with a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.8%-55.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.