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Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation

643K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.2%Range (90% confident): 55.1% – 55.3%Based on 643K games
0%55.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.1% – 55.3%
Outcome Distribution
53.6%3.2%43.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Ng5
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation
Analyzen=643K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 55.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.1% and 55.3%), based on 643K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +23.2% · Breakpoint: Never

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.0 · Trap factor: +9.4 · n=643K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.1% · UltraBullet best · Rapid worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 51% → 60%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.7% win rate (27,704 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.1% win rate (73,267 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.5% win rate (129,532 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.4% win rate (158,526 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.1% win rate (129,182 games)
  • 1800-1999: 55.5% win rate (80,381 games)
  • 2000-2199: 57.1% win rate (32,384 games)
  • 2200-2499: 59.4% win rate (10,099 games)
  • 2500+: 60.3% win rate (1,482 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (64%), worst in Rapid (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 63.5% win rate (264 games)
  • Bullet: 56.2% win rate (157,413 games)
  • Blitz: 53.0% win rate (330,349 games)
  • Rapid: 52.4% win rate (149,465 games)
  • Classical: 52.9% win rate (5,066 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (8,493 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (13,323 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (5,856 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (19,359 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (37,568 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (16,087 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (212 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (106 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (30,067 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (68,310 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (30,298 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (751 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 71.6% expected score (68 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (33,547 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (83,114 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (40,142 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (1,655 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 62.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (25,495 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (68,547 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (33,380 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (1,733 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (20,795 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (40,470 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (18,513 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.0% expected score (587 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (12,341 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (15,385 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.7% expected score (4,567 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 67.0% expected score (90 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (6,010 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 63.2% expected score (3,461 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.7% expected score (617 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (1,306 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 66.0% expected score (171 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit
43.5%
Scotch Game: Benima Defense
52.7%
Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack
64.2%
Scotch Game: Braune Variation
49.0%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Analyze Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.5%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 643K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 59.4% win rate for white (10K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (63.5%) outperforms Classical (52.9%) by 10.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 130K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 159K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.9%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 129K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 55.2%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.7%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 59.4% (90% CI: 58.6%-60.2%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 60.3% (90% CI: 58.2%-62.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 63.5% (90% CI: 58.6%-68.3%) win rate for white (264 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 56.0%-56.4%) win rate for white (157K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.1%) win rate for white (330K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.6%) win rate for white (149K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-54.1%) win rate for white (5.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Sarratt Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.5%-53.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.