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Scotch Game: Potter Variation

386K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 53.8%Based on 386K games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 53.8%
Outcome Distribution
51.7%4.0%44.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nb3
Scotch Game: Potter Variation
Analyzen=386K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 53.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.6% and 53.8%), based on 386K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~50%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.4% win rate (2,228 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.3% win rate (6,797 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.9% win rate (16,667 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.7% win rate (40,068 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.4% win rate (67,468 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.5% win rate (98,786 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.7% win rate (91,536 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.5% win rate (53,575 games)
  • 2500+: 52.1% win rate (9,017 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.9% win rate (41 games)
  • Bullet: 52.3% win rate (116,816 games)
  • Blitz: 51.5% win rate (211,059 games)
  • Rapid: 51.5% win rate (55,428 games)
  • Classical: 52.6% win rate (2,798 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (686 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (887 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (649 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (2,411 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (2,959 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (1,401 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (5,170 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (8,168 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (3,225 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (93 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (11,304 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (21,324 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (7,159 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (271 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (16,667 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (38,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (11,457 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (867 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (24,250 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (58,174 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (15,411 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (948 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (25,362 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (53,859 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (11,813 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (495 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (24,687 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (24,646 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (4,158 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (6,279 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (2,569 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.0% expected score (155 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit
43.5%
Scotch Game: Benima Defense
52.7%
Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack
64.2%
Scotch Game: Braune Variation
49.0%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Analyze Scotch Game: Potter Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate?

The Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 386K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Potter Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Potter Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (54K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.3%) outperforms Classical (52.6%) by -0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation?

The Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 67K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 99K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 92K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 54K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.5%) win rate for white (117K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.6%) win rate for white (211K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.8%) win rate for white (55K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Potter Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-54.1%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the Scotch Game: Potter Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Potter Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.