Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation

230K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.6%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.7%Based on 230K games

0%52.6%100%

Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.7%

Outcome Distribution

50.4%4.4%45.2%

Win

Draw

Loss

4...Bb4+

Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation

Analyzen=230K

Avg Length32 moves

Sharpness96%

Draw Rate4.4%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 52.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 52.7%), based on 230K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 89.5 · Trap factor: +5.3 · n=230K

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 47%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in Bullet (49%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (3,175 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (11,646 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (7,519 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (44 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (4,969 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (16,205 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (10,685 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (199 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (5,976 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (20,546 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (11,636 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (417 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (7,047 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (22,678 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (11,737 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (735 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (26 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (6,115 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (21,148 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (9,724 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (581 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (5,706 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (13,538 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (5,279 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.8% expected score (278 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (5,243 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (8,822 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,239 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (76 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (5,954 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (5,952 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (539 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.9% expected score (22 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (2,046 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (948 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 75.5% expected score (28 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Scotch Game

52.9%

Variations (5)

Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit

43.5%

Scotch Game: Benima Defense

52.7%

Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack

64.2%

Scotch Game: Braune Variation

49.0%

Scotch Game: Classical Variation

50.6%

Analyze Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate?

The Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 230K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 52.4% win rate for white (39K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.6%) by 0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation?

The Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.8%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.5%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 43.4%-57.7%) win rate for white (130 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.8%) win rate for white (46K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.4%) win rate for white (121K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.9%) win rate for white (59K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-54.4%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Scotch Game: Malaniuk Variation expected score for White?