Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation

2.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

View As

Playable

White Expected Score50.4%Range (90% confident): 50.4% – 50.5%Based on 2.0M games

0%50.4%100%

Range (90% confident): 50.4% – 50.5%

Outcome Distribution

47.9%4.9%47.2%

Win

Draw

Loss

4...Nf6

Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation

Analyzen=2.0M

Avg Length33 moves

Sharpness95%

Draw Rate4.9%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 50.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.4% and 50.5%), based on 2.0M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~46%)

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.4% expected score (50 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (22,725 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (40,147 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (13,948 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 35.1% expected score (89 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (137 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (50,822 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (90,726 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (40,763 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (447 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (184 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (75,523 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (137,179 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (68,471 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (1,685 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (200 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (96,612 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (181,416 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (82,532 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (4,378 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.9% expected score (140 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (103,690 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (207,355 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (79,933 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (4,499 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (66 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (95,615 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (184,679 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (57,234 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (3,149 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (66 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (73,049 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (111,081 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (26,277 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (958 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (43 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (60,824 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (46,610 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (7,524 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (198 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (17,445 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (4,893 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (616 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (139 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Scotch Game

52.9%

Variations (5)

Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit

43.5%

Scotch Game: Benima Defense

52.7%

Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack

64.2%

Scotch Game: Braune Variation

49.0%

Scotch Game: Classical Variation

50.6%

Analyze Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate?

The Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 48.5% win rate for white (365K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (51.9%) outperforms Classical (42.9%) by 9.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation?

The Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.2%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 77K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 183K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 283K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 365K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 396K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 341K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 211K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 115K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.4%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 14.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 49.1%-54.6%) win rate for white (888 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.3%) win rate for white (596K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.1%) win rate for white (1.0M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.0%) win rate for white (377K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 42.2%-43.5%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

Is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Scotch Game: Schmidt Variation expected score for White?