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Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation

737K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 53.3%Based on 737K games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.1% – 53.3%
Outcome Distribution
51.7%3.0%45.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.e5
Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation
Analyzen=737K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.1% and 53.3%), based on 737K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +15.3% · Breakpoint: 1800-1999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.1% · UltraBullet best · Blitz worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.3% win rate (14,372 games)
  • 1000-1199: 57.0% win rate (46,724 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.4% win rate (96,902 games)
  • 1400-1599: 54.5% win rate (147,947 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.7% win rate (174,401 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (143,314 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.6% win rate (71,978 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.1% win rate (33,931 games)
  • 2500+: 49.5% win rate (7,004 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (59%), worst in Blitz (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 59.3% win rate (330 games)
  • Bullet: 52.5% win rate (205,178 games)
  • Blitz: 51.2% win rate (381,796 games)
  • Rapid: 52.0% win rate (143,989 games)
  • Classical: 52.6% win rate (5,280 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (6,656 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (5,352 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (2,348 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (17,870 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (21,248 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (7,472 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (103 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (91 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (29,766 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (48,034 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (18,568 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (443 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (35,828 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (79,422 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (31,450 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.5% expected score (62 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (39,044 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (95,220 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (38,176 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (1,899 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (31,596 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (78,794 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (31,535 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (22,280 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (37,788 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (11,637 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (266 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (16,824 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (14,346 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (2,710 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (5,314 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,592 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scotch Game
52.9%
Variations (5)
Scotch Game: Alekhine Gambit
43.5%
Scotch Game: Benima Defense
52.7%
Scotch Game: Blumenfeld Attack
64.2%
Scotch Game: Braune Variation
49.0%
Scotch Game: Classical Variation
50.6%
Analyze Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 737K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation perform best?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 57.0% win rate for white (47K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (59.3%) outperforms Blitz (51.2%) by 8.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 56.3% (90% CI: 55.6%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 57.0% (90% CI: 56.6%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 56.4% (90% CI: 56.1%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 97K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 54.3%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 148K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 174K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 143K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 72K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 59.3% (90% CI: 54.8%-63.7%) win rate for white (330 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.7%) win rate for white (205K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.3%) win rate for white (382K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.2%) win rate for white (144K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-53.8%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation a good opening?

The Scotch Game: Scotch Gambit, Advance Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.