What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation expected score for White?
Snapshot
At all ratings, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 53.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 54.5%), based on 10K Lichess games.
Scotch Game: Fraser Variation
10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
View As
Play ThisWhite Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 54.5%Based on 10K games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 54.5%
Outcome Distribution
51.8%3.8%44.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nf3
Scotch Game: Fraser Variation
Analyzen=10K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
White Win% by Rating
Improves with rating: 55% → 63%
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 55.0% win rate (902 games)
- 1000-1199: 50.1% win rate (1,288 games)
- 1200-1399: 52.6% win rate (1,554 games)
- 1400-1599: 51.0% win rate (1,621 games)
- 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (1,792 games)
- 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (1,589 games)
- 2000-2199: 53.8% win rate (1,151 games)
- 2200-2499: 52.9% win rate (370 games)
- 2500+: 62.7% win rate (28 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in Bullet (57%), worst in UltraBullet (23%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 23.1% win rate (5 games)
- Bullet: 57.0% win rate (3,115 games)
- Blitz: 50.2% win rate (5,068 games)
- Rapid: 48.1% win rate (2,035 games)
- Classical: 41.5% win rate (72 games)
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 62.6% expected score (154 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (472 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (275 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (231 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (652 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (390 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (303 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (807 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (428 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (426 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (778 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (396 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (20 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (595 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (883 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (298 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (630 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (793 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (163 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (504 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (573 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (69 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (247 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (107 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (16 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (25 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Parent
Scotch Game52.9%
Analyze Scotch Game: Fraser Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate?
The Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 10K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation perform best?
The Scotch Game: Fraser Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 55.0% win rate for white (902 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation better in blitz or rapid?
Bullet (57.0%) outperforms Classical (41.5%) by 15.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation?
The Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?
At 0-999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 52.2%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 902 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 47.8%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 50.5%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.3%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 370 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 57.0% (90% CI: 55.5%-58.5%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.4%) win rate for white (5.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
What is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.3%-50.0%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.
Is the Scotch Game: Fraser Variation a good opening?
The Scotch Game: Fraser Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.