TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Catalan Opening

13 variations · 2.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Catalan Opening gives White a 54.8% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 9.4%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

You play
Play This
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 54.7% – 54.8%Aggregated from 13 variations
0%54.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.7% – 54.8%
ContextOverall · n=2.0M
Outcome Distribution
51.5%6.6%42.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d5
Catalan Opening
Variations13
Games (Context)2.0M
Avg Length38 moves
Draw Rate6.6%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Catalan Opening: Closed, Main LineTop Pick
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 d5 4.g3 Be7 5.Bg2 O-O 6.O-O Nbd7 7.Qc2 c6 8.Nbd2
Min adv +18.1% · n=71K
59.4%
#2Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.g3 d5 4.Bg2 Be7 5.Nf3 O-O 6.O-O Nbd7 7.Nc3 c6 8.Qd3
Min adv +15.6% · n=21K
58.4%
#3Catalan Opening: Closed
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.g3 d5 4.Bg2
Min adv +8.7% · n=835K
54.5%
#4Catalan Opening
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.g3
Min adv +8.2% · n=310K
54.3%
#5Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Alekhine Variation
1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.g3 d5 4.Bg2 dxc4 5.Qa4+ Nbd7 6.Qxc4 a6 7.Qc2
Min adv 0.0% · n=237
55.3%
#6Catalan Opening: Closed, Zagoryansky Variation
1.d4 e6 2.c4 Nf6 3.Nf3 d5 4.g3 Be7 5.Bg2 O-O 6.O-O Nbd7 7.Qc2 c6 8.Rd1 b6 9.a4
Min adv -1.4% · n=170
55.6%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Catalan Opening expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Catalan Opening family has a 54.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.7% and 54.8%), aggregated from 13 variations and 2.0M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.3% win rate (5,283 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.5% win rate (18,303 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.1% win rate (46,614 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.4% win rate (107,950 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.3% win rate (209,689 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.6% win rate (356,729 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.0% win rate (487,580 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.2% win rate (564,924 games)
  • 2500+: 50.5% win rate (191,659 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.9% win rate (4,023 games)
  • Bullet: 52.5% win rate (694,867 games)
  • Blitz: 51.0% win rate (1,087,105 games)
  • Rapid: 50.7% win rate (191,518 games)
  • Classical: 48.4% win rate (11,218 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (1,758 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (2,625 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (888 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (7,007 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (8,500 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (2,707 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.9% expected score (54 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (177 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (18,382 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (21,368 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (6,448 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (239 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (624 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (38,385 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (53,395 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (14,734 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (812 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (1,462 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (69,607 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (110,082 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (26,490 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (2,048 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (1,034 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (99,898 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (206,246 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (45,958 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (3,593 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (498 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (138,862 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (293,965 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (51,131 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (3,124 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (178 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (203,346 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (322,025 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (38,484 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (891 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (117,622 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (68,899 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (4,678 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (452 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (13)

1
Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line71K games
59.4%
2
Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation21K games
58.4%
3
Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation47K games
56.2%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense329K games
55.5%
Catalan Opening: Closed835K games
54.5%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation7.8K games
55.2%
Catalan Opening310K games
54.3%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Classical Line364K games
54.0%
Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation1.7K games
53.4%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation372 games
55.4%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Alekhine Variation237 games
55.3%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Zagoryansky Variation170 games
55.6%
Catalan Opening: Hungarian Gambit120 games
53.3%
Analyze Catalan Opening PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Catalan Opening win rate?

The Catalan Opening family has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.5%) win rate for white, aggregated from 13 variations and 2.0M rated games from Lichess.

How many Catalan Opening variations are there?

This analysis covers 13 Catalan Opening variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Catalan Opening perform best?

The Catalan Opening family performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 54.1% win rate for white (47K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Catalan Opening better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.5%) outperforms Classical (48.4%) by 4.1% across all Catalan Opening variations.

How sharp is the Catalan Opening?

Catalan Opening games are 93.4% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 38 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Catalan Opening a good opening family?

The Catalan Opening family is statistically favors white overall with a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.5%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 13 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.