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Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation

21K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score58.4%Range (90% confident): 57.8% – 58.9%Based on 21K games
0%58.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 57.8% – 58.9%
Outcome Distribution
55.1%6.5%38.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.Qd3
Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation
Analyzen=21K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.5%

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a 58.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 57.8% and 58.9%), based on 21K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 71% → 58%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 40.7% win rate (12 games)
  • 1200-1399: 77.1% win rate (16 games)
  • 1400-1599: 58.0% win rate (108 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.4% win rate (449 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.4% win rate (2,486 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.0% win rate (5,949 games)
  • 2200-2499: 55.3% win rate (9,216 games)
  • 2500+: 57.9% win rate (2,962 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (65%), worst in Classical (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 64.7% win rate (7 games)
  • Bullet: 55.6% win rate (7,782 games)
  • Blitz: 54.6% win rate (12,337 games)
  • Rapid: 57.5% win rate (1,016 games)
  • Classical: 47.9% win rate (58 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 81.1% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (160 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (239 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.6% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (670 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (1,630 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (163 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 69.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,486 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (4,069 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (365 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (3,337 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (5,476 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (394 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.8% expected score (2,066 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (864 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 76.9% expected score (32 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Catalan Opening
50.9%
Variations (5)
Catalan Opening: Closed
51.4%
Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation
49.6%
Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation
52.1%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line
56.3%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation
52.1%
Analyze Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate?

The Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.5%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 21K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation perform best?

The Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.9% win rate for white (3.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (57.5%) outperforms Classical (47.9%) by 9.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation?

The Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a 58.0% (90% CI: 50.2%-65.6%) win rate for white, based on 108 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 49.5%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 449 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 51.8%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.4%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 9.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a 57.9% (90% CI: 56.4%-59.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 54.6%-56.5%) win rate for white (7.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.8%-55.3%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a 57.5% (90% CI: 55.0%-60.1%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.5%.

Is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation a good opening?

The Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation is statistically favors white with a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.5%-55.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.