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Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line

71K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

59.4%

45%65%
Floor59.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 59.7%.

Measured over 71K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 6.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 71K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
71K
Best context
63.5% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
55.6% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
40 moves
Games that end decisively
93.9%
Draws
6.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 56.1% at 0-999, 63.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (46 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 80.8% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (152 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (581 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (535 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (86 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (1,326 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (2,470 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (313 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (3,076 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (8,508 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (1,110 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.5% expected score (101 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (6,095 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (15,264 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (1,908 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 69.3% expected score (92 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.2% expected score (11,162 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 62.3% expected score (11,348 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (1,472 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 68.4% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.5% expected score (4,356 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.7% expected score (821 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (81 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Catalan Opening
50.9%
Variations (5)
Catalan Opening: Closed
51.4%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Classical Line
50.2%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense
52.4%
Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation
52.1%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation
55.1%
Analyze Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line scores 59.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 59.1% and 59.7% — from 71K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
71K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line, White wins 56.3%, draws 6.1% and loses 37.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.4%. It rests on 71K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line perform best?

The Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 63.3% (5.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 59.3% in Blitz (39K games) against 60.2% in Rapid (5.0K games).

How sharp is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line?

The Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 50.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 262 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 55.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 41.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 54.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 54.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 55.3%, draws 6.1% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 57.7%, draws 6.4% and loses 35.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.9%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 59.1%, draws 8.4% and loses 32.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.3%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 56.9%, draws 4.5% and loses 38.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.2%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 55.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 37.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.3%. It rests on 39K Lichess games.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 56.1%, draws 8.2% and loses 35.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.2%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 61.8%, draws 11.3% and loses 27.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 67.4%. It rests on 260 Lichess games.

Is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line a good opening?

The Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 56.3% of its games and loses 37.6%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.