Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation
21K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
58.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.9%.
Measured over 21K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 21K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 21K
- Best context
- 61.8% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 54.7% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 40 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.5%
- Draws
- 6.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 0-999, 66.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 76.3% expected score (8 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (49 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (46 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 81.1% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (160 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (239 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.6% expected score (46 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (670 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (1,630 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (163 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 69.0% expected score (17 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (1,486 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (4,069 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (365 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (29 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (3,337 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (5,476 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (394 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.8% expected score (2,066 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (864 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 76.9% expected score (32 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation scores 58.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 57.8% and 58.9% — from 21K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 21K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate?
Playing the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation, White wins 55.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 21K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation perform best?
The Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 61.7% (3.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 58.3% in Blitz (12K games) against 62.3% in Rapid (1.0K games).
How sharp is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation?
The Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation has a sharpness score of 93.5 (decisive), meaning 93.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 58.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.6%. It rests on 108 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 53.4%, draws 6.1% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 449 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 53.4%, draws 5.1% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 54.0%, draws 6.8% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 55.3%, draws 6.5% and loses 38.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 57.9%, draws 7.6% and loses 34.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.7%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 55.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 54.6%, draws 7.4% and loses 38.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 57.5%, draws 9.5% and loses 33.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.3%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.
Is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation a good opening?
The Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 55.1% of its games and loses 38.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.