Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation

7.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
6...Bb4+
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.9%

40%55%
Floor44.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.8%.

Measured over 7.8K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 16.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 7.8K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
7.8K
Best context
46.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
41.8% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
47 moves
Games that end decisively
83.3%
Draws
16.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 35.1% at 0-999, 38.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 22.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 11.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 34.4% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (120 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (67 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (79 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (232 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (100 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (114 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (387 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (168 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (205 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (665 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (361 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,950 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (209 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (887 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (1,442 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (193 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.5% expected score (39 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Catalan Opening
50.9%
Variations (5)
Catalan Opening: Closed
51.4%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Classical Line
50.2%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense
52.4%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line
56.3%
Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation
52.1%
Analyze Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation scores 44.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.0% and 45.8% — from 7.8K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
7.8K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate?

Playing the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation, Black wins 36.5%, draws 16.7% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 7.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation perform best?

The Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 48.5% (690 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.2% in Blitz (4.9K games) against 44.7% in Rapid (1.0K games).

How sharp is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation?

The Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a sharpness score of 83.3 (moderately decisive), meaning 83.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 47 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 38.5%, draws 6.8% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 109 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 40.0%, draws 8.4% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 242 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.2%, draws 7.6% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 426 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.8%, draws 7.4% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 690 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.9%, draws 9.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.8%, draws 9.8% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 25.7%, draws 32.3% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games, which average 60 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 32.3%, draws 24.2% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 38.6%, draws 13.2% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 35.2%, draws 18.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 24.5%, draws 28.2% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.6%. It rests on 135 Lichess games.

Is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation a good opening?

The Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 36.5% of its games and loses 46.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.