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Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation

7.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.9%Range (90% confident): 44.0% – 45.8%Based on 7.8K games
0%44.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.0% – 45.8%
Outcome Distribution
36.5%16.7%46.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Bb4+
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation
Analyzen=7.8K
Avg Length47 moves
Sharpness83%
Draw Rate16.7%

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 44.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.0% and 45.8%), based on 7.8K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 30% → 26%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 29.6% win rate (34 games)
  • 1000-1199: 34.3% win rate (70 games)
  • 1200-1399: 38.5% win rate (109 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.0% win rate (242 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.2% win rate (426 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.8% win rate (690 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.9% win rate (1,112 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.8% win rate (2,548 games)
  • 2500+: 25.7% win rate (2,561 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Classical (25%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 32.3% win rate (1,750 games)
  • Blitz: 38.6% win rate (4,893 games)
  • Rapid: 35.2% win rate (1,012 games)
  • Classical: 24.5% win rate (135 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 22.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 11.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 34.4% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (120 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (67 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (79 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (232 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (100 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (114 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (387 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (168 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (205 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (665 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (361 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,950 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (209 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (887 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (1,442 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (193 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.5% expected score (39 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Catalan Opening
50.9%
Variations (5)
Catalan Opening: Closed
51.4%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Classical Line
50.2%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense
52.4%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line
56.3%
Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation
52.1%
Analyze Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate?

The Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation perform best?

The Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 62.2% win rate for white (70 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (48.2%) outperforms Classical (47.3%) by 0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation?

The Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a sharpness score of 83.3 (moderately decisive), meaning 83.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 47 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 46.9%-62.5%) win rate for white, based on 109 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 46.3%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 242 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 45.3%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 426 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 44.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 690 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 46.8%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.8% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 46.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.8% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 42.0% (90% CI: 40.4%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 60 moves with a 32.3% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 43.5% (90% CI: 41.5%-45.4%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 24.2%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.4%) win rate for white (4.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.2%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 43.4%-48.5%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 18.9%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 40.3%-54.3%) win rate for white (135 Lichess games). Draw rate is 28.2%.

Is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation a good opening?

The Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation is statistically favors white with a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.