Catalan Opening: Open Defense
329K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
44.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.7%.
Measured over 329K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 329K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 329K
- Best context
- 48.3% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 37.7% at 1000-1199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.8%
- Draws
- 6.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 41.9%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (595 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (928 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (330 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (2,234 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (2,618 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 37.7% expected score (835 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (70 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (5,247 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (5,031 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (1,720 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (80 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (178 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (9,797 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (11,433 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (3,215 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (158 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (282 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (16,033 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (20,237 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (4,977 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (360 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (251 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (20,283 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (31,156 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (7,620 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (535 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (71 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (23,211 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (36,426 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (7,267 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (439 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (28,564 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (48,497 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (5,786 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.7% expected score (131 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (17,172 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (14,726 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (822 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 32.7% expected score (68 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense scores 44.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.4% and 44.7% — from 329K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 329K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate?
Playing the Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Black wins 41.4%, draws 6.2% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 329K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Catalan Opening: Open Defense perform best?
The Catalan Opening: Open Defense performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 46.5% (83K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.4% in Blitz (171K games) against 44.3% in Rapid (33K games).
How sharp is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense?
The Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 40.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 39.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 39.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 39.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 56.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 41.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.3%, draws 5.8% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.7%, draws 7.6% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 83K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 38.8%, draws 13.2% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 41.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 873 Lichess games.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 41.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 123K Lichess games.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 41.9%, draws 6.8% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 171K Lichess games.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 40.5%, draws 7.5% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.
What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 37.1%, draws 11.9% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.
Is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense a good opening?
The Catalan Opening: Open Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.4% of its games and loses 52.4%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.