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Analyzer

Catalan Opening: Open Defense

329K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.5%Range (90% confident): 44.4% – 44.7%Based on 329K games
0%44.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.4% – 44.7%
Outcome Distribution
41.4%6.2%52.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nf3
Catalan Opening: Open Defense
Analyzen=329K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.2%

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 44.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.4% and 44.7%), based on 329K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~41%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.7% win rate (1,856 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.9% win rate (5,716 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.9% win rate (12,148 games)
  • 1400-1599: 39.7% win rate (24,781 games)
  • 1600-1799: 41.1% win rate (41,889 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.5% win rate (59,845 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.3% win rate (67,414 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.7% win rate (82,987 games)
  • 2500+: 38.8% win rate (32,788 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (42%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.7% win rate (873 games)
  • Bullet: 41.0% win rate (123,136 games)
  • Blitz: 41.9% win rate (171,052 games)
  • Rapid: 40.5% win rate (32,572 games)
  • Classical: 37.1% win rate (1,791 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (595 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.6% expected score (928 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (330 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (2,234 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (2,618 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 37.7% expected score (835 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (70 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (5,247 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (5,031 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (1,720 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (80 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (178 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (9,797 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (11,433 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.2% expected score (3,215 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.5% expected score (158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (282 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.2% expected score (16,033 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (20,237 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (4,977 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (360 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (251 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (20,283 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (31,156 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (7,620 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (535 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (71 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (23,211 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (36,426 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (7,267 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (439 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (28,564 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (48,497 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (5,786 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.7% expected score (131 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (17,172 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (14,726 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (822 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 32.7% expected score (68 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Catalan Opening
50.9%
Variations (5)
Catalan Opening: Closed
51.4%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Classical Line
50.2%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line
56.3%
Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation
52.1%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation
55.1%
Continuations (3)
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Classical Line
50.2%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Modern Sharp Variation
46.8%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Alekhine Variation
49.7%
Analyze Catalan Opening: Open Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate?

The Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 329K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Catalan Opening: Open Defense perform best?

The Catalan Opening: Open Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 57.0% win rate for white (12K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.1%) outperforms Classical (51.0%) by 3.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense?

The Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a sharpness score of 93.8 (decisive), meaning 93.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 55.9% (90% CI: 54.0%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.0%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 57.0% (90% CI: 56.3%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.3%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.5%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 67K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 83K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 13.2% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 55.4% (90% CI: 52.6%-58.2%) win rate for white (873 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 54.1% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.3%) win rate for white (123K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.4%) win rate for white (171K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.4%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Catalan Opening: Open Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.1%-53.0%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.9%.

Is the Catalan Opening: Open Defense a good opening?

The Catalan Opening: Open Defense is statistically favors white with a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.