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Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation

1.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.6%Range (90% confident): 44.6% – 48.6%Based on 1.7K games
0%46.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.6% – 48.6%
Outcome Distribution
42.8%7.6%49.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...b5
Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation
Analyzen=1.7K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate7.6%

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation has a 46.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 44.6% and 48.6%), based on 1.7K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 33% → 38%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • 1200-1399: 60.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.0% win rate (23 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.4% win rate (76 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (160 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.9% win rate (387 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.9% win rate (704 games)
  • 2500+: 37.9% win rate (293 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (27%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 41.9% win rate (484 games)
  • Blitz: 43.2% win rate (1,048 games)
  • Rapid: 42.4% win rate (120 games)
  • Classical: 27.3% win rate (4 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199———
1200-1399———
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 27.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (50 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 36.5% expected score (28 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (114 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (70 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (279 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (157 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (494 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (53 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (196 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.1% expected score (89 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.2% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Catalan Opening
50.9%
Variations (5)
Catalan Opening: Closed
51.4%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Classical Line
50.2%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense
52.4%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line
56.3%
Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation
52.1%
Analyze Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation win rate?

The Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation perform best?

The Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 56.1% win rate for white (76 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.2%) outperforms Rapid (45.7%) by 7.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation?

The Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation has a sharpness score of 92.4 (decisive), meaning 92.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 42.2%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 160 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 387 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 45.5%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 704 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 46.7%-56.2%) win rate for white, based on 293 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 10.7% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 49.5%-57.0%) win rate for white (484 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 45.9%-51.0%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 38.3%-53.1%) win rate for white (120 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.9%.

Is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation a good opening?

The Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Rabinovich Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.