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Analyzer

Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation

47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score43.8%Range (90% confident): 43.5% – 44.2%Based on 47K games
0%43.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.5% – 44.2%
Outcome Distribution
39.7%8.2%52.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...b6
Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation
Analyzen=47K
Avg Length40 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.2%

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 43.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.5% and 44.2%), based on 47K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 27% → 38%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 27.3% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 39.4% win rate (15 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.3% win rate (92 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.4% win rate (367 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.8% win rate (1,285 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.9% win rate (5,092 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.9% win rate (13,839 games)
  • 2200-2499: 38.3% win rate (20,403 games)
  • 2500+: 37.7% win rate (6,285 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (41%), worst in Classical (34%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 40.7% win rate (15,503 games)
  • Blitz: 39.5% win rate (28,447 games)
  • Rapid: 37.4% win rate (3,286 games)
  • Classical: 33.6% win rate (146 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 27.8% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 66.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (149 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (175 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (426 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (748 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 13.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,148 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (3,470 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (437 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (2,710 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (9,939 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (1,133 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (6,513 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (12,431 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (1,425 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (4,500 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (1,649 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (135 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Catalan Opening
50.9%
Variations (5)
Catalan Opening: Closed
51.4%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense, Classical Line
50.2%
Catalan Opening: Open Defense
52.4%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Main Line
56.3%
Catalan Opening: Closed, Botvinnik Variation
55.1%
Analyze Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate?

The Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 47K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation perform best?

The Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.1% win rate for white (20K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.4%) outperforms Classical (53.2%) by 0.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation?

The Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a sharpness score of 91.8 (decisive), meaning 91.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 367 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.6% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 9.4% draw rate.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.0%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.1%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.9%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.7%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.3%.

What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-59.9%) win rate for white (146 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.2%.

Is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation a good opening?

The Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.