Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation
47K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
43.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.2%.
Measured over 47K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 8.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 47K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 47K
- Best context
- 48.5% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.4% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 40 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.8%
- Draws
- 8.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 34.5% at 0-999, 44.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (48 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 27.8% expected score (30 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 66.2% expected score (14 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (149 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (175 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (38 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (426 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (748 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (99 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 13.0% expected score (12 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,148 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (3,470 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (437 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (37 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (2,710 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (9,939 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (1,133 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (57 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (6,513 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (12,431 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (1,425 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (34 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (4,500 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (1,649 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (135 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation scores 43.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.5% and 44.2% — from 47K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 47K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate?
Playing the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation, Black wins 39.7%, draws 8.2% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 47K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation perform best?
The Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 47.4% (5.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 44.0% in Blitz (28K games) against 43.6% in Rapid (3.3K games).
How sharp is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation?
The Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation has a sharpness score of 91.8 (decisive), meaning 91.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 40 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 41.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 367 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.9%, draws 6.9% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 40.9%, draws 8.0% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.3%, draws 8.6% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.6%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 37.7%, draws 9.4% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 40.7%, draws 5.9% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 39.5%, draws 8.9% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 37.4%, draws 12.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 33.6%, draws 13.2% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.2%. It rests on 146 Lichess games.
Is the Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation a good opening?
The Catalan Opening: Closed Variation, Traditional Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 39.7% of its games and loses 52.1%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.