Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation
372 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
44.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.9%.
Measured over 372 games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 6.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 372 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 372
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 41 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.4%
- Draws
- 6.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 0-999, 51.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (23 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (59 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 33.9% expected score (45 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (94 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.3% expected score (54 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (25 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation scores 44.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 40.5% and 48.9% — from 372 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 372+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation win rate?
Playing the Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation, Black wins 41.4%, draws 6.6% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 372 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation perform best?
The Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (90 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation?
The Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation has a sharpness score of 93.4 (decisive), meaning 93.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 41 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 36.3%, draws 7.8% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.2%. It rests on 146 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 37.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.5%. It rests on 140 Lichess games.
What is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.1%, draws 7.8% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 211 Lichess games.
Is the Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation a good opening?
The Catalan Opening: Closed, Sokolsky Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.4% of its games and loses 52.1%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.