King's Gambit

160 variations · 29M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

King's Gambit gives White a 52.9% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 5.6%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.8% – 52.9%Aggregated from 160 variations
0%52.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.8% – 52.9%
ContextOverall · n=29M
Outcome Distribution
51.3%3.0%45.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.f4
King's Gambit
Variations160
Games (Context)29M
Avg Length30 moves
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the King's Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the King's Gambit family has a 52.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.8% and 52.9%), aggregated from 160 variations and 29M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.7% win rate (833,812 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.1% win rate (1,854,290 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.1% win rate (3,577,601 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.5% win rate (5,900,320 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (7,547,319 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (6,144,169 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (2,350,247 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.2% win rate (561,330 games)
  • 2500+: 49.9% win rate (41,105 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.6% win rate (33,697 games)
  • Bullet: 51.3% win rate (7,995,704 games)
  • Blitz: 51.3% win rate (16,203,416 games)
  • Rapid: 51.7% win rate (4,435,040 games)
  • Classical: 52.6% win rate (142,336 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (2,771 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (292,759 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (393,280 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (143,887 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (1,115 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (3,900 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (646,195 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (921,956 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (277,869 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (4,370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (7,918 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (1,126,504 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (1,903,918 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (522,778 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (16,483 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (9,332 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (1,532,399 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (3,402,959 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (917,767 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (37,863 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (7,012 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (1,759,052 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (4,494,857 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,234,938 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (51,460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (2,178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,487,320 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (3,616,234 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (1,012,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (25,891 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (364 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (820,632 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,229,768 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (294,686 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (4,797 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (190 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (301,012 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (229,596 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (30,203 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (329 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (29,831 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (10,848 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (366 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (28 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (160)

1
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation584 games
75.4%
2
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation1.3K games
66.2%
3
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Wild Muzio Gambit67K games
63.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit9.7K games
62.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: McDonnell Gambit2.7K games
63.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense3.0K games
62.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Thorold Attack2.1K games
60.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Anderssen Defense38K games
59.2%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Pawn Sacrifice Line102 games
66.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Ghulam-Kassim Gambit29K games
58.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Philidor Gambit, Schultz Variation307 games
62.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Lolli Gambit46K games
57.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Zilbermints Double Countergambit2.5K games
58.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Paulsen Attack4.9K games
58.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense, Spanish Variation41K games
57.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Kling and Horwitz Counterattack335 games
61.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation44K games
57.1%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Shirazi Line5.6K games
57.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: King's Knight's Gambit1.9M games
56.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Cunningham Defense, Bertin Gambit129K games
56.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Long Whip66K games
56.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Testa Variation15K games
57.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation243K games
56.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit44K games
56.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation40K games
56.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense199K games
56.2%
King's Gambit Declined: Senechaud Countergambit654 games
58.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted386K games
55.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Urusov Attack13K games
56.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubov Variation2.0K games
57.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bledow Countergambit8.3K games
56.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Sörensen Gambit1.2K games
57.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Blackburne Gambit497 games
58.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation4.9K games
56.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit16K games
55.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Greco Variation4.5K games
56.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense3.5M games
54.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schallopp Defense1.1M games
54.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit245K games
54.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Anderssen Variation3.2K games
56.2%
King's Gambit3.8M games
54.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense12K games
54.7%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Schiller's Defense1.1K games
56.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky, Long Whip Defense, Jaenisch Variation575 games
57.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Cotter Gambit23K games
54.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense2.1M games
53.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, First Jaenisch Variation23K games
54.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Euwe Attack325 games
57.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Maurian Defense231K games
53.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit Accepted, From's Defense3.2K games
54.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit175K games
53.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense1.2M games
53.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Quaade Gambit39K games
53.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Mason-Keres Gambit44K games
52.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense70K games
52.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Gianutio Countergambit40K games
52.7%
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense5.4M games
52.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense18K games
52.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Urusov Attack917 games
54.7%
King's Gambit Declined: Zilbermints Double Gambit1.2K games
54.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Walthoffen Attack732 games
54.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense569K games
51.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense144K games
52.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Quade Gambit1.9K games
53.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Keres Variation2.4K games
53.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Breyer Gambit21K games
52.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Becker Defense410K games
51.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Variation16K games
52.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense23K games
51.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bledow Variation9.5K games
52.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Bello Gambit7.6K games
52.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Brentano Defense4.6K games
52.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boren-Svenonius Variation233 games
56.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Boden Variation13K games
51.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Polerio Gambit222K games
51.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubov Defense920 games
53.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Villemson Gambit106K games
51.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation913K games
50.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit193K games
50.7%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit130K games
50.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Baldwin Gambit229 games
55.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Cunningham Defense, McCormick Defense55K games
50.7%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Milner-Barry Variation122K games
50.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Blachly Gambit222K games
50.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense14K games
50.7%
King's Gambit Declined: Soller-Zilbermints Gambit5.0K games
51.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack514K games
50.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit Accepted44K games
50.2%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit78K games
50.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Main Line2.7K games
51.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Brentano Defense581 games
53.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Philidor Gambit13K games
50.3%
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit767 games
52.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Kieseritzky Gambit546 games
53.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense132K games
49.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense61K games
49.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Kolisch Defense55K games
49.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Stamma Gambit7.9K games
49.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Abbazia Defense364K games
49.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bonsch-Osmolovsky Variation197K games
48.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Hanham Variation1.1K games
51.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Hobbs-Zilbermints Gambit230 games
53.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky, Polerio Defense3.8K games
49.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit1.6K games
50.1%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Old Line7.2K games
48.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Tartakower Gambit3.4K games
49.1%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation62K games
47.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit3.3K games
48.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Cunningham Defense807K games
47.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit57K games
47.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Schlechter Defense2.6K games
48.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kotov Gambit207 games
52.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Miles Gambit14K games
47.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Rubinstein Variation26K games
47.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Symmetrical Variation482 games
50.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Mayet Gambit21K games
47.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Staunton Line379K games
47.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bryan Countergambit464 games
50.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Eisenberg Variation7.4K games
47.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit, Paulsen Defense325 games
50.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense1.6K games
48.1%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Svenonius Variation1.1K games
48.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Modern Transfer128K games
45.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit20K games
46.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Anderssen Defense3.1K games
46.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Anderssen Attack16K games
45.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation67K games
45.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Hanstein Gambit81K games
45.1%
King's Gambit Accepted110K games
44.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Miles Defense145K games
44.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Neumann Defense1.9K games
46.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schallopp Defense, Tashkent Attack245 games
49.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Carrera Gambit4.4K games
45.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit5.7K games
44.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Orsini Gambit395 games
47.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Rosenthal Defense7.0K games
44.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Gianutio Gambit2.8K games
44.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Berlin Defense, Rubinstein Variation1.1K games
45.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Sörensen Gambit45K games
43.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Basman Gambit917 games
45.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Dodo Variation8.7K games
42.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Paris Gambit4.3K games
42.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Berlin Defense10K games
42.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit305K games
41.2%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Nimzowitsch-Marshall Countergambit97K games
41.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Anderssen Counterattack24K games
41.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schurig Gambit, with Bb51.7K games
42.3%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense11K games
40.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed1.5K games
41.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Silberschmidt Defense12K games
39.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Berlin Defense, de Riviere Variation768 games
41.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit18K games
39.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Cochrane Gambit5.1K games
38.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Gaga Gambit19K games
37.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Santa Maria Defense2.8K games
35.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense2.8K games
35.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schurig Gambit, with Bd3790 games
35.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Salvio Gambit, Viennese Variation11K games
32.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Silberschmidt Gambit1.9K games
31.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Paulsen Defense Deferred195 games
27.6%
Analyze King's Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit win rate?

The King's Gambit family has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.3%) win rate for white, aggregated from 160 variations and 29M rated games from Lichess.

How many King's Gambit variations are there?

This analysis covers 160 King's Gambit variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the King's Gambit perform best?

The King's Gambit family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.1% win rate for white (1.9M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the King's Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (52.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.6%) by 3.0% across all King's Gambit variations.

How sharp is the King's Gambit?

King's Gambit games are 97.0% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 30 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the King's Gambit a good opening family?

The King's Gambit family is statistically favors white overall with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.3%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 160 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.