What is the King's Gambit expected score for White?
Overall, the King's Gambit family has a 52.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.8% and 52.9%), aggregated from 160 variations and 29M Lichess games.
160 variations · 29M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
King's Gambit gives White a 52.9% expected score — a strong opening choice.
With a minimum advantage of 5.6%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.
Overall, the King's Gambit family has a 52.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.8% and 52.9%), aggregated from 160 variations and 29M Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~51%)
Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (50%)
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
The King's Gambit family has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.3%) win rate for white, aggregated from 160 variations and 29M rated games from Lichess.
This analysis covers 160 King's Gambit variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
The King's Gambit family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.1% win rate for white (1.9M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Classical (52.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.6%) by 3.0% across all King's Gambit variations.
King's Gambit games are 97.0% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 30 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
The King's Gambit family is statistically favors white overall with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.3%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 160 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.