3.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a 48.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 50.3%), based on 3.3K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 43% → 60%
Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Rapid (45%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 57.5% win rate for white (194 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (48.3%) outperforms Rapid (45.2%) by 3.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a 57.5% (90% CI: 51.7%-63.3%) win rate for white, based on 194 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 0.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 43.8%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 549 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a 46.1% (90% CI: 43.4%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 930 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 44.2%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 915 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 43.9%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 597 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 45.6%-51.0%) win rate for white (933 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.6%-49.2%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 40.2%-50.1%) win rate for white (272 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit is slightly favors black with a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.