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King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation

913K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.2%Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.3%Based on 913K games
0%49.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.3%
Outcome Distribution
47.8%2.8%49.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.c3
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
Analyzen=913K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.8%

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 49.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 49.3%), based on 913K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.4% win rate (24,461 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.8% win rate (42,616 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.6% win rate (88,868 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.1% win rate (166,053 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.7% win rate (246,021 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (215,901 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.4% win rate (98,205 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.5% win rate (29,369 games)
  • 2500+: 43.3% win rate (1,618 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Rapid (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.2% win rate (4,805 games)
  • Bullet: 47.9% win rate (291,087 games)
  • Blitz: 47.8% win rate (505,213 games)
  • Rapid: 47.2% win rate (108,548 games)
  • Classical: 47.3% win rate (3,459 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (301 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (9,822 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (9,521 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (4,766 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (550 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (18,857 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (18,361 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (4,714 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (134 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (1,319 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (34,674 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (44,350 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (8,206 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (319 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (1,543 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (54,629 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (91,552 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (17,676 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (653 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (790 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (71,920 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (144,089 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (28,149 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (1,073 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (283 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (57,294 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (126,526 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (30,844 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (954 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (31,331 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (54,255 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (12,352 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (252 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (11,590 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (15,922 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (1,831 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (970 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (637 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Staunton Line
45.6%
Continuations (4)
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rotlewi Countergambit
47.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Rubinstein Countergambit
48.2%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Walthoffen Attack
53.1%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Euwe Attack
56.8%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 913K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (89K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (45.9%) by 4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 89K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 166K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 246K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 216K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 98K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.7%-47.1%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white (291K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.1%) win rate for white (505K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.4%) win rate for white (109K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.8%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.