Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense

569K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
2...Nf6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.1%

45%55%
Floor48.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.3%.

Measured over 569K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 569K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
569K
Best context
53.0% at 1200-1399 UltraBullet
Worst context
43.3% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.5%
Draws
2.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.3% at 0-999, 45.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.9% expected score (271 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (10,726 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (11,539 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (5,132 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (63 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (376 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (20,320 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (14,726 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (4,613 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (142 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (807 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (35,764 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (25,443 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (5,395 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (237 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (900 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (51,249 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (44,233 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (7,145 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (345 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (551 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (65,315 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (60,757 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (7,695 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (288 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (176 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (61,749 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (49,878 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (5,983 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (120 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (38,011 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (17,315 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,811 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (14,256 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (3,606 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (303 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,681 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.3% expected score (318 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Staunton Line
45.6%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense scores 48.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.0% and 48.3% — from 569K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
569K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 569K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 48.8% (28K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.5% in Blitz (228K games) against 47.6% in Rapid (38K games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense?

The King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 1.9% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.4%, draws 1.9% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.0%, draws 2.0% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 104K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.3% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 135K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 118K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 57K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.6%, draws 0.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 299K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 228K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.8% of its games and loses 50.6%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.