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King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense

569K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.1%Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.3%Based on 569K games
0%48.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.0% – 48.3%
Outcome Distribution
46.8%2.5%50.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Nf6
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
Analyzen=569K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate2.5%

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 48.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.0% and 48.3%), based on 569K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.3% win rate (27,731 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.9% win rate (40,177 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.4% win rate (67,646 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.0% win rate (103,872 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.3% win rate (134,606 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.1% win rate (117,906 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.9% win rate (57,179 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.1% win rate (18,187 games)
  • 2500+: 39.7% win rate (2,003 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.6% win rate (3,132 games)
  • Bullet: 46.8% win rate (299,071 games)
  • Blitz: 47.0% win rate (227,815 games)
  • Rapid: 45.9% win rate (38,079 games)
  • Classical: 44.0% win rate (1,210 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.9% expected score (271 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (10,726 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (11,539 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (5,132 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (63 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (376 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (20,320 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (14,726 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (4,613 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (142 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (807 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (35,764 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (25,443 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (5,395 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (237 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (900 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (51,249 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (44,233 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (7,145 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (345 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (551 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (65,315 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (60,757 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (7,695 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (288 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (176 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (61,749 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (49,878 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (5,983 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (120 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (29 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (38,011 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (17,315 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,811 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (14,256 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (3,606 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (303 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,681 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.3% expected score (318 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Staunton Line
45.6%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 569K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.7% win rate for white (2.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.6%) by 3.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense?

The King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 104K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 135K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 118K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 54.7% (90% CI: 52.8%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.1%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.8%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.3%) win rate for white (299K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.1%) win rate for white (228K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.1%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-54.6%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense is statistically balanced with a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.