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King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense

5.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.7%Range (90% confident): 47.7% – 47.8%Based on 5.4M games
0%47.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.7% – 47.8%
Outcome Distribution
46.2%3.0%50.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Nc6
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
Analyzen=5.4M
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 47.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.7% and 47.8%), based on 5.4M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...d5 · Black wins: 48.8% · n=3.9M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.0% win rate (137,299 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.7% win rate (339,606 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.2% win rate (711,662 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (1,201,278 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.0% win rate (1,453,114 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.2% win rate (1,073,260 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.7% win rate (381,414 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.7% win rate (88,466 games)
  • 2500+: 45.5% win rate (6,426 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.6% win rate (5,276 games)
  • Bullet: 47.4% win rate (1,840,421 games)
  • Blitz: 45.7% win rate (2,848,342 games)
  • Rapid: 45.4% win rate (679,761 games)
  • Classical: 44.2% win rate (18,725 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.5% expected score (527 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (54,540 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (61,906 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (20,200 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (126 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (708 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (136,609 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (158,010 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (43,623 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (656 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (260,844 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (358,920 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (88,023 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (2,608 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (1,412 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (363,369 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (671,163 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (159,696 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (5,638 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (823 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (416,005 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (828,830 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (200,606 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (6,850 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (425 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (346,976 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (587,763 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (135,530 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (2,566 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (80 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (189,858 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (161,292 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (29,910 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.9% expected score (274 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (66,454 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (19,815 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (2,160 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (5,766 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (643 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Staunton Line
45.6%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (712K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (51.8%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.5%) by 5.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense?

The King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 137K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 340K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 712K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 381K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 88K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.6%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.5%) win rate for white (1.8M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.0%) win rate for white (2.8M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.1%) win rate for white (680K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.4%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense is statistically favors white with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.