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King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense

5.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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2...Nc6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.7%

40%55%
Floor47.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 5.4M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.4M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
5.4M
Best context
62.5% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context
42.1% at 1800-1999 Classical
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...d5 · Black wins: 48.8% · 3.9M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.2% at 0-999, 46.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 62.5% expected score (527 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (54,540 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (61,906 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (20,200 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (126 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (708 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (136,609 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (158,010 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (43,623 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (656 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (1,267 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (260,844 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (358,920 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (88,023 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (2,608 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (1,412 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (363,369 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (671,163 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (159,696 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (5,638 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (823 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (416,005 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (828,830 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (200,606 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (6,850 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (425 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (346,976 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (587,763 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (135,530 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (2,566 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (80 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (189,858 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (161,292 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (29,910 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 33.9% expected score (274 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (66,454 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (19,815 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (2,160 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (5,766 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (643 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Staunton Line
45.6%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense scores 47.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.7% and 47.8% — from 5.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
5.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 5.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.3% (137K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.4% in Blitz (2.8M games) against 47.2% in Rapid (680K games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense?

The King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 137K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 340K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 712K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 381K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 88K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 52.6%, draws 0.9% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 1.8M Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 2.8M Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 680K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 44.2%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.2% of its games and loses 50.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.