King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit
305K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
58.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 59.0%.
Measured over 305K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 305K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 305K
- Best context
- 69.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 53.3% at 1000-1199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.9%
- Draws
- 3.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 57.2% at 0-999, 66.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (52 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (3,276 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (5,999 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (2,478 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.3% expected score (25 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.8% expected score (78 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (5,753 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (10,410 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (4,269 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (72 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.7% expected score (266 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (9,946 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (18,426 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (6,748 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (199 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (364 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (14,353 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (34,120 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (10,814 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (477 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (374 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (17,660 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (46,208 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.7% expected score (13,893 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (549 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (218 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (17,669 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 60.5% expected score (38,530 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (11,435 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.6% expected score (236 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (35 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (10,270 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 62.5% expected score (11,842 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 63.5% expected score (2,851 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 76.3% expected score (29 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.4% expected score (19 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (3,560 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 69.8% expected score (1,071 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.8% expected score (204 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 66.8% expected score (287 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 69.7% expected score (29 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit scores 58.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 58.7% and 59.0% — from 305K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 305K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Black wins 57.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.8%. It rests on 305K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit perform best?
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit performs best for Black at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 67.3% (320 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 59.3% in Blitz (167K games) against 59.8% in Rapid (53K games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit?
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 52.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 55.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 57.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.5%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 58.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.7%. It rests on 79K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 58.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 38.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.1%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 59.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 37.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.1%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 60.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 35.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.9%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 65.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 30.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 67.3%. It rests on 320 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 55.1%, draws 1.5% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 56.1%, draws 2.2% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 83K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 57.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.3%. It rests on 167K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 57.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 38.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.8%. It rests on 53K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 60.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 34.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.9%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit a good opening?
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 57.3% of its games and loses 39.7%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.