Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit

78K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
3.d4
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.0%

45%55%
Floor49.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.3%.

Measured over 78K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 78K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
78K
Best context
52.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
43.9% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.8% at 0-999, 58.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (917 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (2,198 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (1,112 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.2% expected score (48 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (766 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,968 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (1,279 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,223 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (2,518 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (1,252 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (52 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (141 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,939 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (4,012 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (1,379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.6% expected score (99 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (186 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (3,419 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (8,356 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (2,041 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (160 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (5,846 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (13,647 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (3,199 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (311 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (3,514 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (8,880 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (2,050 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 66.4% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (2,145 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,629 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (389 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (186 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (169 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 50.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 50.3% — from 78K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
78K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 50.0% (range, 90% confident: 49.7% – 50.3%) for White, based on 78K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit performs best at 2500+, where it scores 56.5% for White (361 games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, Bullet (50.6%) outperforms Classical (47.8%). Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 46.2% (range, 90% confident: 44.9% – 47.4%) for White, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 49.1% (range, 90% confident: 47.8% – 50.4%) for White, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 47.7% (range, 90% confident: 46.5% – 48.8%) for White, based on 5.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 49.6% (range, 90% confident: 48.6% – 50.5%) for White, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 50.0% (range, 90% confident: 49.4% – 50.7%) for White, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 50.1% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 50.6%) for White, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 51.5% (range, 90% confident: 50.8% – 52.2%) for White, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 51.7% (range, 90% confident: 50.5% – 52.8%) for White, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 56.5% (range, 90% confident: 52.2% – 60.7%) for White, based on 361 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 49.4% (range, 90% confident: 45.6% – 53.2%) for White (472 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 50.6% (range, 90% confident: 50.0% – 51.2%) for White (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 49.9% (range, 90% confident: 49.6% – 50.3%) for White (44K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 49.4% (range, 90% confident: 48.7% – 50.2%) for White (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit scores 47.8% (range, 90% confident: 44.7% – 51.0%) for White (688 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Hinrichsen Gambit is about level with a 48.2% (range, 90% confident: 47.9% – 48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.