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Analyzer

King's Gambit

160 variations · 29M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

King's Gambit gives White a 52.9% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 5.6%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating
Time
White Expected Score52.9%Aggregated from 160 variationsWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%52.9%60%
Tight estimate: 52.9% (±0.1%, huge sample)
Min adv+5.6%
ContextOverall · n=29M
Outcome Distribution
2.f4
King's Gambit
Variations160
Games (Context)29M
Avg Length30 moves
Draw Rate3.0%

Games (Context) — games matching the current filter

What is the King's Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the King's Gambit family has a 52.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.8% and 52.9%), aggregated from 160 variations and 29M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.7% win rate (833,812 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.1% win rate (1,854,290 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.1% win rate (3,577,601 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.5% win rate (5,900,320 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (7,547,319 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (6,144,169 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (2,350,247 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.2% win rate (561,330 games)
  • 2500+: 49.9% win rate (41,105 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.6% win rate (33,697 games)
  • Bullet: 51.3% win rate (7,995,704 games)
  • Blitz: 51.3% win rate (16,203,416 games)
  • Rapid: 51.7% win rate (4,435,040 games)
  • Classical: 52.6% win rate (142,336 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (2,771 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (292,759 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (393,280 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (143,887 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (1,115 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (3,900 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (646,195 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (921,956 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (277,869 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (4,370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (7,918 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (1,126,504 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (1,903,918 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (522,778 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (16,483 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (9,332 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (1,532,399 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (3,402,959 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (917,767 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (37,863 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (7,012 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (1,759,052 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (4,494,857 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,234,938 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (51,460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (2,178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,487,320 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (3,616,234 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (1,012,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (25,891 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (364 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (820,632 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,229,768 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (294,686 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (4,797 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (190 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (301,012 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (229,596 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (30,203 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (329 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (29,831 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (10,848 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (366 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (28 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (160)

Ranked by Min adv — the worst-case edge over 50% we're 90% confident you keep.

1
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation584 games
75.4%min +44.7%
2
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation1.3K games
66.2%min +28.2%
3
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Wild Muzio Gambit67K games
63.5%min +26.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit9.7K games
62.9%min +24.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: McDonnell Gambit2.7K games
63.0%min +22.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense3.0K games
62.0%min +21.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Thorold Attack2.1K games
60.8%min +18.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Anderssen Defense38K games
59.2%min +17.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Pawn Sacrifice Line102 games
66.4%min +17.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Ghulam-Kassim Gambit29K games
58.5%min +15.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Philidor Gambit, Schultz Variation307 games
62.2%min +15.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Lolli Gambit46K games
57.9%min +14.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Zilbermints Double Countergambit2.5K games
58.8%min +14.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Paulsen Attack4.9K games
58.1%min +13.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense, Spanish Variation41K games
57.2%min +13.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Kling and Horwitz Counterattack335 games
61.2%min +13.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation44K games
57.1%min +13.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Shirazi Line5.6K games
57.7%min +13.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: King's Knight's Gambit1.9M games
56.7%min +13.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Cunningham Defense, Bertin Gambit129K games
56.8%min +13.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Long Whip66K games
56.9%min +13.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Testa Variation15K games
57.0%min +12.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation243K games
56.6%min +12.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit44K games
56.7%min +12.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation40K games
56.5%min +12.1%
King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense199K games
56.2%min +11.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Senechaud Countergambit654 games
58.9%min +11.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted386K games
55.8%min +11.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Urusov Attack13K games
56.4%min +11.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubov Variation2.0K games
57.3%min +11.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bledow Countergambit8.3K games
56.4%min +10.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Sörensen Gambit1.2K games
57.4%min +10.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Blackburne Gambit497 games
58.7%min +9.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation4.9K games
56.2%min +9.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit16K games
55.6%min +9.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Greco Variation4.5K games
56.2%min +9.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense3.5M games
54.8%min +9.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schallopp Defense1.1M games
54.8%min +9.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit245K games
54.9%min +9.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Anderssen Variation3.2K games
56.2%min +9.4%
King's Gambit3.8M games
54.8%min +9.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense12K games
54.7%min +7.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Schiller's Defense1.1K games
56.1%min +7.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky, Long Whip Defense, Jaenisch Variation575 games
57.1%min +7.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Cotter Gambit23K games
54.2%min +7.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense2.1M games
53.7%min +7.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, First Jaenisch Variation23K games
54.0%min +6.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Euwe Attack325 games
57.8%min +6.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Maurian Defense231K games
53.5%min +6.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit Accepted, From's Defense3.2K games
54.6%min +6.3%
Analyze King's Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit win rate?

The King's Gambit family has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.3%) win rate for white, aggregated from 160 variations and 29M rated games from Lichess.

How many King's Gambit variations are there?

This analysis covers 160 King's Gambit variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the King's Gambit perform best?

The King's Gambit family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.1% win rate for white (1.9M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the King's Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (52.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.6%) by 3.0% across all King's Gambit variations.

How sharp is the King's Gambit?

King's Gambit games are 97.0% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 30 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the King's Gambit a good opening family?

The King's Gambit family is statistically favors white overall with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.3%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 160 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.