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King's Gambit

160 variations · 29M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

52.9%

45%60%
Floor52.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 29M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 29M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
#14 of 56
Games in this context
29M
Best context
56.1% at 2000-2199 Classical
Worst context
44.2% at 0-999 Classical
Variations measured
160
Average game length
30 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.0% at 0-999, 52.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (2,771 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (292,759 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (393,280 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (143,887 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (1,115 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (3,900 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (646,195 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (921,956 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (277,869 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (4,370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (7,918 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (1,126,504 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (1,903,918 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (522,778 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (16,483 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (9,332 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (1,532,399 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (3,402,959 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (917,767 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (37,863 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (7,012 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (1,759,052 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (4,494,857 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,234,938 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (51,460 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (2,178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,487,320 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (3,616,234 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (1,012,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (25,891 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (364 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (820,632 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (1,229,768 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (294,686 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (4,797 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (190 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (301,012 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (229,596 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (30,203 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.3% expected score (329 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (29,831 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (10,848 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (366 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (28 games)

160 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Alapin Variation584 games
75.4%Floor 72.4%
2
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Schubert Variation1.3K games
66.2%Floor 64.1%
3
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Wild Muzio Gambit67K games
63.5%Floor 63.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Double Muzio Gambit9.7K games
62.9%Floor 62.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: McDonnell Gambit2.7K games
63.0%Floor 61.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Holloway Defense3.0K games
62.0%Floor 60.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Thorold Attack2.1K games
60.8%Floor 59.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Anderssen Defense38K games
59.2%Floor 58.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Pawn Sacrifice Line102 games
66.4%Floor 58.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Ghulam-Kassim Gambit29K games
58.5%Floor 58.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Philidor Gambit, Schultz Variation307 games
62.2%Floor 57.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Lolli Gambit46K games
57.9%Floor 57.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Zilbermints Double Countergambit2.5K games
58.8%Floor 57.2%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Paulsen Attack4.9K games
58.1%Floor 56.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense, Spanish Variation41K games
57.2%Floor 56.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Kling and Horwitz Counterattack335 games
61.2%Floor 56.8%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation44K games
57.1%Floor 56.7%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Shirazi Line5.6K games
57.7%Floor 56.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: King's Knight's Gambit1.9M games
56.7%Floor 56.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Cunningham Defense, Bertin Gambit129K games
56.8%Floor 56.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Long Whip66K games
56.9%Floor 56.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Testa Variation15K games
57.0%Floor 56.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation243K games
56.6%Floor 56.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit44K games
56.7%Floor 56.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation40K games
56.5%Floor 56.1%
King's Gambit Declined: Keene's Defense199K games
56.2%Floor 56.0%
King's Gambit Declined: Senechaud Countergambit654 games
58.9%Floor 55.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted386K games
55.8%Floor 55.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier Gambit, Urusov Attack13K games
56.4%Floor 55.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubov Variation2.0K games
57.3%Floor 55.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bledow Countergambit8.3K games
56.4%Floor 55.5%
King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Sörensen Gambit1.2K games
57.4%Floor 55.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Blackburne Gambit497 games
58.7%Floor 55.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation4.9K games
56.2%Floor 55.0%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit16K games
55.6%Floor 54.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Greco Variation4.5K games
56.2%Floor 54.9%
King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense3.5M games
54.8%Floor 54.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schallopp Defense1.1M games
54.8%Floor 54.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit245K games
54.9%Floor 54.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Anderssen Variation3.2K games
56.2%Floor 54.7%
King's Gambit3.8M games
54.8%Floor 54.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Wagenbach Defense12K games
54.7%Floor 53.9%
King's Gambit Declined: Panteldakis Countergambit, Schiller's Defense1.1K games
56.1%Floor 53.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky, Long Whip Defense, Jaenisch Variation575 games
57.1%Floor 53.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Kieseritzky Gambit, Cotter Gambit23K games
54.2%Floor 53.7%
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense2.1M games
53.7%Floor 53.6%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, First Jaenisch Variation23K games
54.0%Floor 53.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation, Euwe Attack325 games
57.8%Floor 53.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Maurian Defense231K games
53.5%Floor 53.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit Accepted, From's Defense3.2K games
54.6%Floor 53.2%
Every King's Gambit variation, by name160
Analyze King's Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit family scores 52.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.8% and 52.9% — from 29M Lichess games across 160 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
29M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit win rate?

Across the King's Gambit's 160 variations, White wins 51.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 29M rated games from Lichess.

How many King's Gambit variations are there?

160 King's Gambit variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the King's Gambit perform best?

The King's Gambit family performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 54.3% (1.9M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the King's Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.9% in Blitz (16M games) against 53.6% in Rapid (4.4M games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit?

King's Gambit games are 97.0% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 30 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the King's Gambit a good opening family?

The King's Gambit family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 51.3% and loses 45.6%. Results differ between its 160 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.