61K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 50.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 51.1%), based on 61K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 59% → 42%
Best in Classical (59%), worst in Bullet (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 61K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.6% win rate for white (241 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.1%) outperforms Classical (38.8%) by 12.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 54.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 241 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.0% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.9%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.7%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.7%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 42.7% (90% CI: 41.7%-43.7%) win rate for white (6.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.
In Classical games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a 38.8% (90% CI: 32.7%-45.0%) win rate for white (170 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense is statistically balanced with a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.