King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense
61K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.1%.
Measured over 61K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 61K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 61K
- Best context
- 57.6% at 1600-1799 Rapid
- Worst context
- 43.1% at 1200-1399 Bullet
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.1%
- Draws
- 2.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 65.6% at 0-999, 47.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (153 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (75 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (575 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (449 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (77 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (1,912 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (2,506 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 64.7% expected score (318 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 77.1% expected score (17 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (3,592 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (9,987 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (1,249 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (48 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (6,214 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (16,739 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (2,897 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (58 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (2,820 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (7,177 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (1,595 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (42 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (929 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (800 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (186 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (37 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 33.7% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense scores 50.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 51.1% — from 61K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 61K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense, Black wins 49.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 61K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense perform best?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 51.7% (12K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (38K games) against 55.7% in Rapid (6.3K games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.3%, draws 1.0% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 241 Lichess games, which average 22 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.3%, draws 1.7% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.5%, draws 1.9% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 49.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 54.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 58.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.9%. It rests on 170 Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense a good opening?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Muzio Gambit, Sarratt Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.3% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.