1.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 47.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 47.2%), based on 1.2M Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 46% → 42%
Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (42%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.2M rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (55K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Classical (53.3%) outperforms Bullet (50.5%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 114K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.4%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 216K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 337K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 324K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 131K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 53.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-56.8%) win rate for white (710 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.6%) win rate for white (270K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate for white (738K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.6%) win rate for white (211K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
In Classical games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.3%-54.3%) win rate for white (6.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.