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King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense

3.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.3%Range (90% confident): 45.2% – 45.3%Based on 3.5M games
0%45.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.2% – 45.3%
Outcome Distribution
43.9%2.8%53.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nc6
King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense
Analyzen=3.5M
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.8%

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 45.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.2% and 45.3%), based on 3.5M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Nc6?! · Black wins: 48.9% · n=1.5M

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~46%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.5% win rate (98,793 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.5% win rate (302,451 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.5% win rate (594,142 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.4% win rate (878,357 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.5% win rate (896,795 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.6% win rate (553,891 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.8% win rate (175,471 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.3% win rate (41,985 games)
  • 2500+: 43.6% win rate (3,527 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (47%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.5% win rate (2,417 games)
  • Bullet: 45.2% win rate (1,177,359 games)
  • Blitz: 43.4% win rate (1,861,713 games)
  • Rapid: 42.5% win rate (490,743 games)
  • Classical: 40.8% win rate (13,180 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (344 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (48,789 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (40,078 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (9,545 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (432 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (129,279 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (140,835 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (31,640 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (265 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (592 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (211,187 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (307,928 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (72,850 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (1,585 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (663 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (252,753 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (490,866 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (130,051 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (4,024 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (326 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (241,544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (503,892 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (145,738 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (5,295 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (46 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (172,282 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (295,407 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (84,392 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.9% expected score (1,764 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (86,927 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (72,835 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (15,501 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (201 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (31,466 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (9,483 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (1,021 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (3,132 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (389 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Gambit Accepted
43.1%
Variations (5)
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense
52.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: King's Knight's Gambit
55.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense
51.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schallopp Defense
53.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Cunningham Defense
46.0%
Analyze King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate?

The King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.4% win rate for white (302K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (53.0%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense?

The King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 99K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 54.4% (90% CI: 54.2%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 302K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 54.1%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 594K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.9%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 878K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 897K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 554K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 175K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 51.3%-54.7%) win rate for white (2.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.6%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.8%-52.9%) win rate for white (1.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.5%-53.6%) win rate for white (1.9M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.0%) win rate for white (491K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.4%-55.9%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense is statistically favors white with a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.