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King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense

3.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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3...Nc6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.3%

40%55%
Floor45.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 3.5M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.5M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
3.5M
Best context
50.3% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
39.9% at 1800-1999 Classical
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
97.2%
Draws
2.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Nc6?! · Black wins: 48.9% · 1.5M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.2% at 0-999, 40.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.3% expected score (344 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (48,789 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (40,078 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (9,545 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (37 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (432 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (129,279 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (140,835 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (31,640 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (265 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (592 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (211,187 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (307,928 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (72,850 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (1,585 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (663 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (252,753 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (490,866 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (130,051 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (4,024 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (326 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (241,544 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (503,892 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (145,738 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (5,295 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (46 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (172,282 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (295,407 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (84,392 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.9% expected score (1,764 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (86,927 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (72,835 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (15,501 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (201 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (31,466 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (9,483 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (1,021 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (3,132 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (389 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Gambit Accepted
43.1%
Variations (5)
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense
52.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: King's Knight's Gambit
55.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense
51.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schallopp Defense
53.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Cunningham Defense
46.0%
Analyze King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense scores 45.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.2% and 45.3% — from 3.5M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense, Black wins 43.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 3.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 49.3% (42K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.0% in Blitz (1.9M games) against 44.3% in Rapid (491K games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense?

The King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.5%, draws 2.0% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 99K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.1% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 302K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 594K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 878K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 897K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 554K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 175K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.5%, draws 0.6% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.2%, draws 1.9% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 1.9M Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 491K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 55.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 43.9% of its games and loses 53.4%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.