TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense

132K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.8%Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 51.0%Based on 132K games
0%50.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 51.0%
Outcome Distribution
49.3%3.0%47.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...e5
King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense
Analyzen=132K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 50.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 51.0%), based on 132K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.5% win rate (1,605 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.0% win rate (2,975 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.0% win rate (6,724 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.8% win rate (16,287 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.2% win rate (34,332 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.7% win rate (47,402 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.0% win rate (19,487 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.9% win rate (2,818 games)
  • 2500+: 40.1% win rate (117 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.1% win rate (81 games)
  • Bullet: 48.6% win rate (24,701 games)
  • Blitz: 49.6% win rate (83,614 games)
  • Rapid: 48.7% win rate (22,520 games)
  • Classical: 50.8% win rate (831 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (573 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (741 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (280 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (1,090 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,458 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (408 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (2,301 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (3,554 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (824 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (3,941 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (10,077 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (2,144 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (6,416 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (22,194 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (5,384 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (5,948 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (31,582 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (9,545 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (323 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (3,286 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (12,528 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (3,630 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (41 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (1,053 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,459 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (302 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (93 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 32.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate?

The King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 132K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (1.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.1%) by 0.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense?

The King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.4%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.0%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-60.2%) win rate for white, based on 117 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.1%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.6%) win rate for white (84K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.9%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense has a 45.2% (90% CI: 42.4%-48.1%) win rate for white (831 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Mafia Defense is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.