11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense has a 59.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 58.8% and 60.3%), based on 11K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 33% → 49%
Similar across time controls (~59%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense has a 38.7% (90% CI: 37.9%-39.4%) win rate for white, based on 11K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 44.0% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (41.6%) outperforms Rapid (37.2%) by 4.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense has a 36.7% (90% CI: 32.3%-41.2%) win rate for white, based on 316 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense has a 35.2% (90% CI: 33.2%-37.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense has a 39.0% (90% CI: 37.7%-40.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense has a 37.9% (90% CI: 36.5%-39.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense has a 44.0% (90% CI: 41.7%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense has a 41.6% (90% CI: 40.0%-43.2%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense has a 37.9% (90% CI: 37.0%-38.9%) win rate for white (7.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense has a 37.2% (90% CI: 34.9%-39.5%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Charousek Gambit, Morphy Defense is slightly favors black with a 38.7% (90% CI: 37.9%-39.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.