King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation
4.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
43.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.1%.
Measured over 4.9K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.9K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 4.9K
- Best context
- 46.3% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 39.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.3%
- Draws
- 2.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.6% at 0-999, 47.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (23 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (71 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (77 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (272 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (68 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (189 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (1,068 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (219 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (286 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (1,456 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (279 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (187 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.8% expected score (552 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.1% expected score (49 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation scores 43.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 42.7% and 45.1% — from 4.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 4.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation, Black wins 42.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 54.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 4.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation perform best?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 45.7% (2.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 43.7% in Blitz (3.5K games) against 46.3% in Rapid (639 games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 42.5%, draws 0.4% and loses 57.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.7%. It rests on 115 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 39.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 57.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 421 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 57.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 788 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 42.1%, draws 1.7% and loses 56.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 782 Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 42.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 44.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 639 Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation a good opening?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.5% of its games and loses 54.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.