23K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 48.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 48.9%), based on 23K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 51% → 47%
Best in UltraBullet (78%), worst in Rapid (46%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 23K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (2.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (50.3%) outperforms Classical (44.4%) by 5.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 44.0%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 795 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 51.6%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.2%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.4%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.0%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.3%) win rate for white (4.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Classical games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense has a 44.4% (90% CI: 38.1%-50.8%) win rate for white (164 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Lopez Defense is statistically balanced with a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.