14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 49.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.7% and 50.0%), based on 14K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 57% → 33%
Best in Bullet (48%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 58.4% win rate for white (126 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (50.7%) outperforms Bullet (48.8%) by 1.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 48.0% (90% CI: 41.1%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 139 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 47.8% (90% CI: 43.7%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 410 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.0%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.8%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 58.4% (90% CI: 51.2%-65.5%) win rate for white, based on 126 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 9.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.3%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.1%) win rate for white (9.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.9%-52.6%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Steinitz Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.