King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit
20K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.5%.
Measured over 20K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 20K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 20K
- Best context
- 57.0% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Worst context
- 51.5% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.6% at 0-999, 49.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (126 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (179 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.1% expected score (322 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (794 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 61.6% expected score (119 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (779 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (2,626 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (442 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 80.5% expected score (10 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,049 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (4,946 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (870 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.2% expected score (29 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (879 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (3,821 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (661 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (511 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (1,111 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (151 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (46 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (50 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit scores 53.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.4% and 54.5% — from 20K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 20K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit, Black wins 51.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 20K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit perform best?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 58.9% (330 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.7% in Blitz (14K games) against 54.6% in Rapid (2.3K games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 57.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 330 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 54.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 53.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 51.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 51.8%, draws 5.5% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit a good opening?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Greco Gambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.9% of its games and loses 44.1%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.