King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit
767 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.5%.
Measured over 767 games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 2.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 767 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 767
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.5%
- Draws
- 2.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 71.0% at 0-999, 59.7% at 2200-2499.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | ||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 67.8% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (55 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (90 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 68.6% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (87 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (130 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (55 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (98 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (56 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (52 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit scores 52.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.5% and 55.5% — from 767 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 767+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit, White wins 51.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 767 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit perform best?
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (158 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.5% in Blitz (413 games) against 53.7% in Rapid (53 games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit?
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 52.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 158 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.1%, draws 1.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 235 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 165 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 109 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.9%, draws 1.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 296 Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 52.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 413 Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit a good opening?
The King's Gambit Declined: Norwalde Variation, Bücker Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 51.2% of its games and loses 46.3%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.