King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation
67K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.2%.
Measured over 67K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 67K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 67K
- Best context
- 56.5% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Worst context
- 48.8% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.9%
- Draws
- 3.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 45.6%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (77 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (54 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (185 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (259 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (35 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (645 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (743 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (133 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (1,741 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (3,079 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (578 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 65.6% expected score (21 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (3,310 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (11,037 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (1,899 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (85 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (3,736 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (18,734 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (3,857 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (64 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (2,486 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (9,610 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (1,982 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (15 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (714 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,191 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (179 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (44 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation scores 54.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.5% and 55.2% — from 67K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 67K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation, Black wins 53.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 67K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation perform best?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 55.8% (26K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.8% in Blitz (45K games) against 54.8% in Rapid (8.7K games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 45.6%, draws 0.4% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 140 Lichess games, which average 21 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.6%, draws 1.8% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 480 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.4%, draws 1.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 53.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 54.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 53.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.8%, draws 4.3% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 53.7%, draws 2.0% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 53.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 45K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 52.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 53.6%, draws 6.6% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 188 Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation a good opening?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Traditional Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 53.2% of its games and loses 43.7%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.