5.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a 55.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 54.3% and 56.4%), based on 5.7K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 75% → 24%
Best in Rapid (57%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a 43.4% (90% CI: 42.4%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 45.3% win rate for white (1.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (44.3%) outperforms Rapid (40.2%) by 4.1%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 38.9%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 228 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a 45.7% (90% CI: 42.8%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 745 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 43.1%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a 41.9% (90% CI: 40.0%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a 40.6% (90% CI: 38.3%-43.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a 47.7% (90% CI: 42.9%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 291 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a 42.7% (90% CI: 40.6%-44.9%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a 44.3% (90% CI: 42.9%-45.7%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit has a 40.2% (90% CI: 37.4%-43.1%) win rate for white (783 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
The King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Pickler Gambit is slightly favors black with a 43.4% (90% CI: 42.4%-44.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.