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King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation

62K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.fxe5
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.9%

40%55%
Floor47.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.2%.

Measured over 62K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 62K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
62K
Best context
50.0% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
44.3% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.9%
Draws
3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: −3.5% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.9% at 0-999, 55.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (281 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (228 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (856 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (584 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (120 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,994 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (2,287 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (358 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (3,711 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (6,473 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (1,048 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.6% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (5,023 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (12,542 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (2,377 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (95 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (4,144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (9,999 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (2,937 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (71 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (2,313 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (2,753 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (759 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (656 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (364 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (57 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (25 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation scores 47.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.6% and 48.2% — from 62K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
62K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation, White wins 46.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 62K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 49.5% (4.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 47.9% in Blitz (35K games) against 47.4% in Rapid (7.8K games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 611 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 43.8%, draws 1.6% and loses 54.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.3%, draws 2.3% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 47.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 45.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 45.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 47.1%, draws 2.0% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 35K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 45.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 41.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 220 Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Classical, Soldatenkov Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 46.3% of its games and loses 50.6%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.