King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit
18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
39.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 39.8%.
Measured over 18K games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 18K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 18K
- Best context
- 43.1% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 33.3% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.0%
- Draws
- 3.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.4% at 0-999, 53.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 37.0% expected score (102 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 31.3% expected score (103 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 27.1% expected score (29 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.9% expected score (327 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 31.6% expected score (363 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (102 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.6% expected score (638 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 37.4% expected score (938 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 23.0% expected score (254 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (1,023 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.2% expected score (2,010 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 33.3% expected score (569 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.2% expected score (41 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.0% expected score (1,192 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (3,046 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 34.4% expected score (873 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 34.8% expected score (38 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (1,128 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.1% expected score (2,613 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.3% expected score (714 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (672 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.8% expected score (777 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (191 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (225 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (76 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (24 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit scores 39.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 38.6% and 39.8% — from 18K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 18K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit, White wins 37.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 59.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.2%. It rests on 18K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit perform best?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 41.3% (4.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 39.7% in Blitz (9.9K games) against 33.8% in Rapid (2.8K games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 32.3%, draws 1.9% and loses 65.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.3%. It rests on 235 Lichess games, which average 20 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 31.4%, draws 2.0% and loses 66.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 32.4%. It rests on 792 Lichess games, which average 21 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 34.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 62.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.1%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 37.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 60.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.3%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 37.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 59.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.2%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 39.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.3%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 40.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 56.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 43.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 323 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 40.1%, draws 2.0% and loses 57.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 38.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 58.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.7%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 32.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 64.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.8%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 30.2%, draws 7.9% and loses 61.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 34.2%. It rests on 106 Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit a good opening?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Rosentreter Gambit, Bird Gambit is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 37.7% of its games and loses 59.3%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.