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King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense

70K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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3...Nf6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.2%

40%55%
Floor46.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.5%.

Measured over 70K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 70K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
70K
Best context
55.2% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
43.5% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.2%
Draws
2.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.6% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 52.0%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,900 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (2,673 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (1,807 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (2,022 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (4,300 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (1,830 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (2,368 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (6,723 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (2,739 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (116 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 34.1% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (2,535 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (8,844 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (3,010 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (191 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (2,314 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (8,321 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (3,308 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (161 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,877 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (5,309 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (2,130 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (91 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (935 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (2,470 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (729 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (507 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (778 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (46 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (38 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Gambit Accepted
43.1%
Variations (5)
King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense
53.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense
52.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: King's Knight's Gambit
55.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense
51.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schallopp Defense
53.3%
Analyze King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense scores 47.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.9% and 47.5% — from 70K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
70K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense, Black wins 45.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 70K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.9% (6.4K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.0% in Blitz (39K games) against 48.4% in Rapid (16K games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.7%, draws 2.1% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.3%, draws 5.1% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 37.3%, draws 0.5% and loses 62.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.6%. It rests on 107 Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 45.4%, draws 1.8% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 39K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 645 Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Cozio Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.8% of its games and loses 51.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.