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King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation

40K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4.Nc3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

56.5%

45%60%
Floor56.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.9%.

Measured over 40K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 40K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
40K
Best context
59.4% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Worst context
53.4% at 0-999 Blitz
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +12.3% · Breakpoint: 2500+

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.1% at 0-999, 53.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (554 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (778 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (334 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (733 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (1,346 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (687 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (989 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (2,967 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,097 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (1,370 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (4,337 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (1,451 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (89 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (1,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (4,597 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (1,854 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (1,502 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (4,436 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (1,338 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.3% expected score (78 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (1,049 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (3,250 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (786 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 68.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (651 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (1,753 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (127 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (88 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (47 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Gambit Accepted
43.1%
Variations (5)
King's Gambit Accepted: MacLeod Defense
53.4%
King's Gambit Accepted: Fischer Defense
52.1%
King's Gambit Accepted: King's Knight's Gambit
55.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Modern Defense
51.3%
King's Gambit Accepted: Schallopp Defense
53.3%
Analyze King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation scores 56.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.1% and 56.9% — from 40K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
40K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation, White wins 54.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 40K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 57.2% (7.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 56.5% in Blitz (24K games) against 57.3% in Rapid (7.7K games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 53.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 54.2%, draws 2.0% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 54.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 55.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 55.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 55.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 53.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 54.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 50.5%, draws 7.5% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 138 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 54.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 8.4K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 54.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 55.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 7.7K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 57.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 37.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.0%. It rests on 365 Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?

The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 54.8% of its games and loses 41.9%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.