18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 47.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 48.0%), based on 18K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 47% → 30%
Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Rapid (44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 18K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 55.0% win rate for white (1.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (52.3%) outperforms Classical (49.0%) by 3.3%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.0%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 580 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 54.2% (90% CI: 51.8%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 55.0% (90% CI: 53.1%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.2%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.9%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.5%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.8%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.6%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.2%) win rate for white (3.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.
In Classical games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 42.8%-55.2%) win rate for white (175 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Bogoljubow Defense is statistically favors white with a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.