King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed
1.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
41.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.5%.
Measured over 1.5K games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.5K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.5K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.7%
- Draws
- 3.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 38.3% at 0-999, 23.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 23.2% expected score (32 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (226 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 22.4% expected score (51 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 27.6% expected score (23 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 36.1% expected score (124 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 29.2% expected score (32 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (50 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (241 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (63 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 36.1% expected score (56 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (196 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 26.1% expected score (57 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (98 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 33.8% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (76 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 22.6% expected score (24 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (47 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed scores 41.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 39.4% and 43.5% — from 1.5K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.5K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed, White wins 39.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 1.5K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed perform best?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 45.6% (357 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.5% in Blitz (1.0K games) against 32.1% in Rapid (260 games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 37.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.0%. It rests on 312 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 31.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 65.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.4%. It rests on 182 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 44.2%, draws 2.6% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 357 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 42.3%, draws 1.7% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 314 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 37.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 60.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.6%. It rests on 134 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 44.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 113 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 32.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 64.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 33.6%. It rests on 203 Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 43.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 30.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 66.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 32.1%. It rests on 260 Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed a good opening?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Tumbleweed is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 39.7% of its games and loses 56.9%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.