2.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense has a 35.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 33.6% and 36.5%), based on 2.8K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 47% → 20%
Best in Bullet (39%), worst in Classical (16%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense has a 33.9% (90% CI: 32.5%-35.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 37.2% win rate for white (538 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (39.0%) outperforms Rapid (24.6%) by 14.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense has a sharpness score of 97.9 (very decisive), meaning 97.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 26 moves.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense has a 38.8% (90% CI: 33.5%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 224 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense has a 37.2% (90% CI: 33.8%-40.6%) win rate for white, based on 538 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense has a 33.2% (90% CI: 30.8%-35.7%) win rate for white, based on 981 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense has a 31.2% (90% CI: 28.4%-33.9%) win rate for white, based on 767 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense has a 26.1% (90% CI: 20.4%-32.2%) win rate for white, based on 146 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense has a 39.0% (90% CI: 35.6%-42.3%) win rate for white (572 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense has a 34.7% (90% CI: 32.8%-36.5%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense has a 24.6% (90% CI: 21.2%-28.2%) win rate for white (403 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Allgaier, Horny Defense is slightly favors black with a 33.9% (90% CI: 32.5%-35.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.