King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation
44K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
43.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.3%.
Measured over 44K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 44K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 44K
- Best context
- 50.4% at 1200-1399 Rapid
- Worst context
- 37.7% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.8%
- Draws
- 2.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.4% at 0-999, 38.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 38.8% expected score (274 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (156 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (84 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (363 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (748 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (230 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (658 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (2,653 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (737 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (34 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (989 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (6,090 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (2,187 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (146 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (1,019 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (7,335 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (4,800 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (324 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (840 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (5,867 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (4,064 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (194 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (476 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (1,986 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.8% expected score (1,222 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 31.7% expected score (23 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 39.0% expected score (144 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 34.7% expected score (305 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (72 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation scores 43.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 42.6% and 43.3% — from 44K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 44K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate?
Playing the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation, Black wins 41.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 44K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation perform best?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 49.6% (1.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 43.0% in Blitz (25K games) against 42.4% in Rapid (13K games).
How sharp is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a sharpness score of 97.8 (very decisive), meaning 97.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.7%, draws 0.5% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 515 Lichess games, which average 16 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.9%, draws 1.4% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 20 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.3%, draws 1.5% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.9%, draws 2.0% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 41.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 39.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 58.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 37.3%, draws 2.8% and loses 59.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.7%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 33.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 63.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.0%. It rests on 521 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.5%, draws 1.1% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 41.9%, draws 2.2% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 25K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 41.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 725 Lichess games.
Is the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation a good opening?
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.8% of its games and loses 55.9%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.