44K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 43.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.6% and 43.3%), based on 44K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 48% → 39%
Similar across time controls (~44%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 55.6%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 44K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 63.1% win rate for white (521 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (56.3%) outperforms Classical (53.9%) by 2.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a sharpness score of 97.8 (very decisive), meaning 97.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-55.4%) win rate for white, based on 515 Lichess games. Average game length is 16 moves with a 0.5% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.4%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 20 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.9%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.3%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.8%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 58.4% (90% CI: 57.6%-59.2%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 59.9% (90% CI: 58.6%-61.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 63.1% (90% CI: 59.6%-66.5%) win rate for white, based on 521 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 54.2%-56.5%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.4%-56.5%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 56.3% (90% CI: 55.6%-57.0%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
In Classical games, the King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 50.8%-56.9%) win rate for white (725 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
The King's Gambit Accepted: Bishop's Gambit, Greco Variation is statistically favors white with a 55.9% (90% CI: 55.6%-56.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.