144K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 48.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 48.3%), based on 144K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 46% → 35%
Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (42%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 144K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 52.2% win rate for white (6.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (51.1%) outperforms Bullet (49.6%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.1%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.
In Blitz games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.5%) win rate for white (91K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.
In Rapid games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.5%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Classical games, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a 53.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-55.8%) win rate for white (969 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
The King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense is statistically balanced with a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.