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King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense

144K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.1%

40%55%
Floor47.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.3%.

Measured over 144K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 144K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
144K
Best context
51.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
43.1% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 43.9% at 0-999, 37.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (776 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (2,656 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (1,495 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (1,023 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (3,341 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (1,892 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,766 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (5,764 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (2,580 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (169 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (4,243 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (13,468 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (4,302 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (292 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (5,967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (29,217 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (8,125 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (314 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (5,554 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (28,360 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (8,824 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (2,775 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (6,666 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (2,170 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (796 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (1,453 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 36.0% expected score (102 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.8% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
King's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Defense
50.8%
King's Gambit Declined: Classical Variation
49.4%
King's Gambit Declined: Petrov's Defense
50.6%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit, Blackburne Attack
48.5%
King's Gambit Declined: Falkbeer Countergambit Accepted
53.9%
Analyze King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense scores 48.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.9% and 48.3% — from 144K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
144K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 144K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense perform best?

The King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.3% (44K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.1% in Blitz (91K games) against 47.1% in Rapid (29K games).

How sharp is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense?

The King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 6.3K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 44K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.5%, draws 6.0% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.2%, draws 2.2% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 91K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.

What is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 969 Lichess games.

Is the King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense a good opening?

The King's Gambit Declined: Keene Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.4% of its games and loses 50.3%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.